Fightlete Staff betting picks and odds for UFC 259
Source: UFC
On Saturday, UFC 259 is set to commence with three title fights and tons of other equally exciting bouts. The event is headlined by the Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, which also sets up a potential double champ opportunity for Adesanya. This will be followed by two other great title fights and a few prospect bouts on the rest of the main card. Here are the odds and betting picks from the Fightlete staff for UFC 259!
All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook. Please gamble responsibly.
Last Event’s Results:
Mike: 5-0, +3.61 units
Drew: 3-2, +0.05 units
Kirien: 2-3, -1.44 units
2021 Totals:
Mike: 20-13, -0.8 units
Drew: 18-15, -1.15 units
Kirien: 13-20, -12.31 units
Sean: 10-18, -10.99 units
Jan Blachowicz (+184) vs. Israel Adesanya (-230)
O/U 4.5 rounds (+182/-250)
Kirien’s Pick: Adesanya/Over
Adesanya’s weight is going to decide the story of whether he wins or loses. Adesanya has said he might weigh in as low as 193 for the 205 lb fight. Blachowicz’s weight advantage will allow him to go deep into the fight, but I predict that Adesanya escapes with a decision victory and learns his lesson about fighting above his weight class.
Mike’s Pick: Adesanya/Under
Israel Adesanya has looked unbeatable in his last few outings, and I think that trend will continue into this bout. Blachowicz is a tough matchup for anyone, especially someone going up a weight class, but I think Adesanya's speed and precision will be too much for Blachowicz to handle. I see Adesanya being able to stay on the outside and land effectively while avoiding damage and takedowns, and ultimately getting a 3rd or 4th round finish.
Drew’s Pick: Blachowicz/Over
Jan Blachowicz is grossly underrated. I know that Izzy is a superstar, but taking Jan to win is a pure value play that I think is more likely to happen than people think. I understand why people think that Adesanya will become the next double champ, but his opponent is the real deal. I see him trying to get some takedowns and do damage on the ground, but is foiled in his attempts by Stylebender’s skills in resisting takedowns. I think we will see the APEX's smaller Octagon play a big factor here. I am predicting a decision narrowly in Blachowicz’s favor.
Sean’s Pick: Adesanya/Over In my opinion, the way Blachowicz will win this fight is by taking Adesanya down and keeping him there for all five rounds. However, stats show that Adesanya has a 86% takedown defense, which could help him dictate where the fight goes. Blachowicz took apart Dominick Reyes in his last fight, efficiently dealing out damage to his opponent’s body and head, but The Last Stylebender isn’t going to be easy to hit. If Adesanya won’t allow Blachowicz to take him down, it’ll play perfectly into Blachowicz’s counter strikes and he’ll knock Adesanya out in the late-fourth/early-fifth round.
Amanda Nunes (-1300) vs. Megan Anderson (+730)
O/U 1.5 rounds (-112/-112)
Kirien’s Pick: Nunes/Over
Megan Anderson deserves to be in this fight, but she is outmanned and outgunned. Amanda Nunes is the heavy favorite for a reason and should win this fight easily. But I think Anderson survives two rounds. She is the taller fighter and has a longer reach that can keep Nunes at bay, but that alone won’t be enough to win Anderson this fight.
Mike’s Pick: Nunes/Over
Amanda Nunez is the greatest women’s MMA fighter of all time, and simply one of the best in the history of the sport. Meagan Anderson is a tough opponent with a great frame for the division, but I just don’t think anyone in that weight class is on the same level as Nunez. I see Anderson hanging tough and having limited success on her way to a decision loss.
Drew’s Pick: Nunes/Over
I have a really hard time seeing Amanda Nunes lose to anyone anytime soon. I don’t underestimate Megan Anderson’s skills, but Nunes is on a different level than everyone. Her odds to win are outrageously high for a reason. It's almost not worth betting on, but for the sake of my overall record, I am going with the Champ-Champ. In my eyes, the real value is the over. Nunes often sees fights that she can clearly win as an opportunity to gain valuable Octagon time, so I see this potentially going the distance with Nunes having a clear win.
Sean’s Pick Nunes/Over
Amanda is the GOAT of Women’s MMA and is at the height of her game. Megan Anderson really hasn’t impressed me in UFC as much as she did in her earlier days with Invicta FC, where she won the women’s Featherweight Title over the course of 4 straight finishes. Anderson's weakest game is on her back and it’ll show in this fight. Nunes loves to rack up knockouts, but for this fight, she’ll take Megan to the ground. Nunes wins a Unanimous Decision.
Petr Yan (-110) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-110)
O/U 4.5 rounds (+118/-150)
Kirien’s Pick: Yan/Under
Aljamain Sterling is the better grappler of the two and if this fight goes to the ground it’ll be a clinic for Yan. However, Petr Yan is a rising star and knows he has to stay on his feet. Yan’s footwork needs to be perfect, but he’ll have his opportunities for KO strikes when Sterling makes his grapple attempts. If Yan can bait him into making sloppy grapples, he can end the fight then and there.
Mike’s Pick- Sterling/Over
This is a phenomenal matchup and there’s a reason Vegas has it as a pick’em. Either man has the ability to exert their game plan, play to their strengths, and get the win. It is being spoken of as a classic Striker vs. Grappler matchup, but I think Yan has underrated grappling and Sterling has underrated striking, so anything could happen. I am going with Sterling for this one based on his track record with training and netting some impressive wins in the past.
Drew’s Pick- Sterling/Under
This is the best fight of the night for me. Both of these guys bring elements on the feet and the ground that makes the matchup so interesting. Sterling knows how to get a submission and do work on the back, whereas Yan can box with the best of them, but also wrestle if he has to. I see Sterling grabbing this win in the second or third round. This fight is going to be fireworks, so take my money. I am ready for it.
Sean’s Pick- Sterling/Over
Petr Yan really hasn’t faced an unorthodox grappler like Sterling yet, and it’ll be a test for sure. I feel Yan has proved why he deserves to be the champion, but it’s not clear yet if he can keep it. Meanwhile, Aljamian has finished 2 out of his last 5 fights, and his past defeats of some impressive opponents speak for themselves. This is a fight that will be played out on the feet early on but that ends on the ground. It will be a close one but will end with Sterling getting his hands raised by Unanimous Decision.