Fightlete Staff betting picks for UFC 258


Source:UFC


The UFC’s second Pay-Per-View event of the year will kick off this Saturday at 10 p.m. EST. The headline championship bout between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns will determine who is the king of the Welterweight division. This, and much more will grace ESPN+ PPV soon!


All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook. Please Gamble Responsibly.


Last week’s results:


Drew 5-1, +2.95 units

Sean 4-2, +0.78 units

Mike 4-2, +0.26 units

Kirien 1-5, -4.56 units



Up-to-date totals


Drew 8-6, +0.92 units

Sean 7-7, -1.30 units

Mike 7-7, -2.62 units

Kirien 4-10, -9.49 units



Kamaru Usman (-290) vs. Gilbert Burns (+225)

O/U 3.5 rounds (-180/+138)


Drew’s Pick- Burns/Over 3.5 rounds

I think the sportsbooks are grossly underestimating Burns in this fight. He is a world-class grappler that can do a lot of work all over the canvas. Look for him to stay in this and tally enough points to grab a decision victory.


Sean’s Pick- Usman/Over 3.5 rounds

Usman has been on 16 fight win streak and undefeated in the UFC overall. Time after time we’ve seen him take on the best the division has to offer and still come out on top. His last fight with Jorge Masvidal only showed him dominate in grappling, but Usman has a host of skills that have yet to be displayed. Burns poses a threat wherever the fight goes for Usman but I think the gas tank will be the difference. Usman wins by Unanimous Decision victory.


Kirien’s Pick- Usman/Over 3.5 rounds

Usman proves why he is the favorite by outlasting Burns in a grueling match. That being said, Usman being a friend of Fightlete's has nothing to do with this pick.


Mike’s Pick- Burns/ Over 3.5 Rounds

The main event is an epic Welterweight clash, and I think there is a lot of value on Burns. Burn’s has demonstrated very dangerous striking in his recent fights and when you add that to his spectacular submission abilities and seemingly endless gas tank, he just might be Usman’s toughest matchup in the entire division. Of course, beating Usman is a daunting task for anyone, but at +225, I love Burns here.



Maycee Barber (+110) vs. Alexa Grasso (-134)

O/U 2.5 rounds (-260/+188)

Drew’s Pick- Barber/Under

Barber packs a lot of power in her punches and has only lost once in her professional career and. I honestly think that these lines could be switched considering their current ranks in the UFC. Look for a first or second knockout from the dog.


Kirien’s Pick- Grasso/Over

Barber could easily be the favorite, but I think the knee is a major concern. I think it’ll cause Barber to keep the fight on it's feet, which ultimately benefits Grasso.


Sean’s Pick- Barber/Under

Barber has been working with Mike Valle and I feel the change was needed, her striking skills are always exciting however I see her going to the ground with submission victory over Grasso.


Mike’s Pick- Grasso/ Over

This is a close fight on paper, but I see Grasso edging out a decision. I think Barber will unsuccessfully look to get an early knockout and Grasso will continue to build momentum as the fight progresses.



Kelvin Gastelum (-220) vs. Ian Heinisch (+176)


Drew’s Pick- Gastelum

All of the signs say that Heinisch should come out with an underdog win, and that is exactly why I am taking Gastelum. My logic is that a hungry dog runs faster. Gastelum is on a three-fight skid and hasn’t won since 2018. If he wants to keep himself in the UFC and in the running for a future title shot, this is a must-win.


Kirien’s Pick- Gastelum

This is going to be a battle. Gastelum has lost his last three fights in a row and is desperate for a win. And Ian Heinisch is already talking about who is going to fight next. Gastelum comes out bloodied but victorious.


Sean’s Pick - Henisch

Gastelum is on a three fight losing streak entering this matchup with another rising Middleweight in Henisch who has come off a first round KO over Meerschaert. Henisch will be ready and Gastelum endurance issues will derail him. Expect another huge submission loss for Gastelum as Henisch gets it late in the 3rd Round.


Mike’s Pick- Gastelum

The difference in this fight will be experience. Kelvin Gastelum has shared the octagon with truly elite competition and has beaten or fought closely with most of them. Heinisch simply hasn’t gone up against the same caliber opponents as Gastelum and has fallen short in his toughest matchups.



Andre Ewell (+132) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-162)


Drew’s Pick- Gutierrez

At the time this is being written, it is unknown if this bout will be on the main card or the prelims, but either way, I have Gutierrez coming out on top. His leg kicks are so good that I predict they will eat up Ewell in a similar way that happened to Conor McGregor at UFC 257. I have Gutierrez with more points for the decision.


Kirien’s Pick- Ewell

Ewell gives up 10 lbs to Gutierrez, but he makes up for it with an 8-inch reach advantage. Ewell will use his reach to control the whole fight.


Sean’s Pick- Ewell

Gutierrez is fighting on short notice against Ewell, who was forced off last week’s UFC card due to Covid. This would be a tough one to call under normal circumstances. Gutierrez's last fight ended in a draw, which in turn ended his streak of 3 wins in a row. This fight may be the one to determine whether or not he can get back on track. As for Ewell, we've seen him take on tougher competition in the past. This fight all comes down to who’s most prepared and I’d think Ewell has that advantage having trained for Stamann on a full camp before his positive test.


Mike’s Pick- Gutierrez

I got Gutierrez winning this one by being the more efficient striker. Gutierrez on average lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.11. Ewell on the other hand, lands 4.5 significant strikes on average per minute, but absorbs 4.2. Ewell’s lack of elusiveness will lead to a Gutierrez victory.



Julian Marquez (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+138)


Drew’s Pick- Pitolo

In my eyes, this is a toss-up. Marquez hasn’t found hasn’t fought since 2018 and hasn’t won since the year prior. Pitolo has fought six times since, amounting to a 3-3 record in that time. I am going with the more active fighter.


Kirien’s Pick- Marquez

Pitolo has been the more active fighter but with inconsistent results. Marquez was told he might never return to competition after an injury in 2018. He would not be fighting if he did not think he was capable of being his once dominant self, which is why he's my pick.


Mike’s Pick- Marquez

Despite a lack of recent competition, I see Marquez getting it done. His lingering issues could prove to be an issue, but if he truly is at 100%, his superior skills will get him the win.


Sean’s Pick- Marquez

After a highlight reel finish from Marquez on DWTCS, we haven’t seen much of him since 2018. He is 1-1 in UFC and coming back after a couple years on the shelf, whereas Pitolo hasn’t had much success going 1-3 in UFC. I think if Marquez comes back healthy and makes a statement look for Pitolo to lose by a finish early on.


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