UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka odds and picks
Source: UFC
After an action-packed UFC 261, Fight Nights are back with an event headlined by Dominick Reyes and Jiri Prochazka. Other notable names on the main card include Cub Swanson and Cody Stamann.
Let’s get right into the odds and the Fightlete staff picks for Saturday’s event!
All odds are via Fanduel Sportsbook.
NOTE: All picks and predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Fightlete does not facilitate gambling activities. Please gamble responsibly if you so choose.
Results from the last event:
Mike: 3-2, +1.95 units
Sean: 3-2, +0.81 units
Kirien, 1-4, -3.33 units
Drew: 1-4, -3.33 units
Abraham: 0-5, -5 units
Results for 2021:
Mike: 34-28, -6.93 units
Drew: 34-33, -3.61 units
Abraham: 6-8, -4.22 units
Kirien: 29-36, -17.72 units
Sean: 28-34, -13.47 units
Dominick Reyes (+108) vs. Jiri Prochazka (-132)
To go the distance Yes/No (+260/-400)
Kirien’s Pick: Reyes
Reyes is coming off back-to-back losses, but I have a feeling he is going to bounce back against Jiri Prochazka. If Reyes is the fighter he was before he lost to Jon Jones, then I think he has a chance of getting back in the win column. If he's still the fighter we've seen in the last two fights, however, then this bet may be lost early.
Drew’s Pick: Reyes
I think getting Reyes at +108 is an absolute steal. I know he is coming off back-to-back losses, but those were against Jan Blachowicz and Jon Jones, two absolute killers. He is being written off way too quickly because of this recent skid, but these are the only two losses of his career. I am hammering Reyes moneyline.
Abraham’s Pick: Jiri Prochazka
Prochazka looked phenomenal in his UFC debut against Volkan Oezdemir, who in the past took Dominick Reyes to the limit in a split decision loss. Prochazka has a very bizarre style with even more bizarre timing. He has even spoken of his respect for Reyes, even though “the Dominator” is coming off a knockout loss to current champ Jan Blachowicz. That being said, I don’t believe he will respect Reyes inside the octagon, which leads me to believe he will try to walk down the former title challenger similar to what Blachowicz previously accomplished. Who knows how Reyes is going to perform in this comeback fight, especially if Prochazka applies high pressure from the get-go. This alone led me to pick Prochazka by brutal knockout.
Mike’s Pick: Prochazka
This is a really fun main event between two killers at Light Heavyweight. This may only be Jiri Prochazka’s second fight in the UFC, but the man has no shortage of MMA experience. This will be Jiri’s 32nd professional fight and he is currently on an insane 11 fight win streak. Reyes is a big, athletic, and hard-hitting 205 pounder, but I think Jiri can match him in all of those departments. Between the experience and the unorthodox striking of Prochazka, I simply see him being too much for Reyes.
Sean’s Pick: Reyes
Dominick Reyes is coming back to the cage after suffering losses to the current and former UFC Light-Heavyweight Champions. In my opinion, Reyes took it to Jones and was shorted on the scorecards. He has plenty of tools at his disposal, including his striking, reach, and wrestling background advantages. Prochazka has had 6 KO’s in a row and is dangerous, but I believe Reyes finishes him with a TKO ground n' pound or submission.
Cub Swanson (+138) vs. Giga Chikadze (-170)
To go the distance Yes/No (-140/+110)
Kirien’s Pick: Chikadze
Giga Chikadze has the age, height, and reach advantage over Cub Swanson, and I expect he will use those to coast to victory. Not quite confident enough to have Giga finishing this one early, but I do think that is a very realistic outcome.
Drew’s Pick: Yes
This is an interesting matchup because Swanson is a grizzled vet and Chikadze is red hot right now. However, both have gone to a decision a lot in recent years, so I am going with that for my pick. For whatever reason, I see this ending in the first three minutes or by decision, so I will stick with the latter.
Abraham’s Pick: Cub Swanson
This fight is a hard choice. Chikadze is so talented and has a bright future in the sport, but Swanson has looked rejuvenated in his last two contests dispatching Kron Gracie and Daniel Pineda. Of course, they’re not as good on the feet as Chikadze, but he also has never faced anyone with the level of experience that Swanson possesses. This is why I’ll go with the upset. I think the veteran “killer” Cub has the instincts and experience to throw different techniques, time the grappling exchanges, leaving Chikadze second guess himself for an entire fight.
Mike’s Pick- Chikadze
I have to go with Chikadze here. Not only does Chikadze have the age and reach advantage, but he also has momentum. Swanson is as experienced as any Featherweight on the roster, which is very significant, but right now Giga Chikadze is on absolute fire. Should be a fun one here, but if Chikadze can keep the fight standing, I see him getting it done.
Sean’s Pick: Swanson
After Swanson’s last two fights, you can’t help but notice there’s a fire under him, possibly because he’s near the end of his career at this point. His fight with Kron Gracie showcased his determination and grit as he landed brutal shots, delivering his best performance in a while. Chikadze has been on a winning streak and should be taken seriously, but I feel the veteran will pull this one out by decision.
Ion Cutelaba (-140) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+114)
To go the distance Yes/No (+280/-400)
Kirien’s Pick: Cutelaba
Dustin Jacoby took Devin Clark’s place on short notice because he thinks he can exploit Cutelaba’s weakness -- his emotion. Jacoby had an interview where he explained that he believes Cutelaba gets too emotional before his fights and it drains his energy. While I want to back the guy who is confident and has a plan, I don’t think that is quite the game-changer that he thinks it is. I am riding with Cutelaba on this one.
Drew’s Pick: Jacoby
I love Jacoby at this value, and I understand why he is an underdog. Cutelaba has been around for a while, but he has been on a struggle bus for a bit now. On the other hand, Jacoby is rocking a four-fight win streak and has not lost an MMA bout since 2015. I think his presence will be quick and overwhelming.
Sean’s Pick: Jacoby
Such a strong underdog for Jacoby in this fight. Although he’s been Kickboxing the past few years, Dustin impressed Dana enough to get a contract on Contender Series. Cutelaba has fought some tough competition in the past but was still viciously finished by Ankalev in his last fight. Jacoby has now had two straight wins since his return to UFC, and it looks like he'll take the third Saturday by Knockout, which I'm betting he does.
Abraham’s Pick: No
I know, I know, there is no money on choosing a finish on either side. But, this fight is so darn close. Both men are powerful light heavyweights, both possess the power to turn each other’s lights out, and with 29 combined wins with only 5 combined decision victories, there is little reason to believe this fight will go on for 15 minutes. To me, this leaves no choice other than to take the “safe money” pick.
Mike’s Pick- Jacoby
When he appeared on the Contender Series in August, Dana White very reluctantly offered Dustin Jacoby a contract. Since then, it has proved to have been the right decision, with him beating two tough opponents in his first two matchups. He has crisp striking with a lot of professional kickboxing experience. I see this being a breakthrough win for Dustin Jacoby.
Sean Strickland (-230) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (+184)
Kirien’s Pick: Strickland
Sean Strickland is coming off a second-round knockout of Brendan Allen, and I think he takes that momentum into this fight and comes away with a victory. Krysztof Jotko hasn’t lost since 2018, so Strickland will have his work cut out for him. This will be a competitive fight to the end but I think Strickland has the skill advantage to control the fight.
Drew’s Pick: Strickland
On paper, this could be one of the best fights of the night. I think the lines are a bit further apart than I would set them, given that both fighters are trying to stay active and rocking winning streaks. I am riding with Strickland because he seems to be a bit more fresh and lively. However, this one is close enough to be a toss-up.
Abraham’s Pick: Strickland
Jotko is a UFC veteran and has been fighting with the company since 2013, but he doesn't hold the power to force Strickland to respect him on the feet. Strickland will be pumping the jab consistently and jamming up Jotko's combinations. This will keep the fight at a distance that Strickland will be comfortable in, eventually leading him to throw combinations after the jab. After enough of these, he'll almost undoubtedly land the blow that will sit Jotko down.
Mike’s Pick- Strickland
In my opinion, these are two of the more underappreciated guys at Middleweight. Both have had impressive careers behind and in front of them, and one of them will likely put themselves close to a top 10 matchup with a win. I believe that the striking and pressure of Strickland will ultimately be enough to get him a win in a close fight.
Sean’s PIck: Strickland
Strickland has a 3 fight win streak going from last year. Strickland's previous knockout of Brendan Allen, who suffered his first loss in UFC, put everyone in 185lb on notice. Jotko has won his last 3 on the judge's scorecard, after dropping 3 straight before 2019. This is a fight that Strickland will want to dominate so he’ll get that buzz back. I bet he gets it done within 2 rounds by KO.
Cody Stamann (+205) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-260)
Kirien’s Pick: Dvalishvili
These two have been trying to fight since 2019, so it should be a blast when the fists start flying. I am riding with Dvalishvili because he is on a five-fight win-streak and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
Drew’s Pick: Stamann
This is going to be a wild fight. Both of these guys are shooting up the rankings and have what it takes to make some noise in the Octagon. My pick will be Stamann because the value is there and I can see this fight going either way.
Abraham’s Pick: Dvalishvili
Both bantamweights are known for their grappling skills. Stamman is a great wrestler, while Dvalishvili is a great sambo practitioner. Whoever wins the grappling exchanges will win this contest, and that will be Dvalishvili. He just comes at you with a tenacity that very few can match and I don’t believe Stamman will be able to keep up with the grappling pace that “the machine” will set for 15 minutes.
Mike’s Pick: Stamann
Stamann will be the first to tell you that he looked flat in his last outing against Jimmie Rivera. Since then, Stamann has been booked for 3 fights that all fell through. In that time, he has pushed himself harder than ever and is in fantastic shape. Stamann also has an impressive 85% takedown defense, which should be enough to thwart the plans of Dvalishvili.
Sean’s Pick: Dvalishvili
I am a fan of #13 UFC Ranked Bantamweight Cody Stamann and #12 Merab Dvalishvili, so this is a tough one to call. Stamann has shown he can hang with some of the toughest in the division, having lost to the current champ and Jimmie Rivera. Dvalishvili has been so durable throughout his UFC wins and, combined with his wrestling and fierce striking work with Longo, I feel although Stamann won’t make it easy. I’ll bet Dvalishvili wins another decision.